With the start of the 2024 season just around the corner, I think it would be a good time to check in on some active players who may one day grace the Halls of Cooperstown.
Locks (100%)
Mike Trout's counting statistics are a little low, but he was one of the most dominant players in MLB history for the first decade of his career. His rate stats are truly impressive (.301 / .412 / .582), and he is still a top player, so I expect him to be a lock, perhaps a first ballot inductee.
Mad Max Scherzer is one of the greatest pitchers in MLB history. Still going strong at age 39, he has a 214-108 (.665) lifetime record, 3,367 strikeouts, and three Cy Young Awards. He's a lock.
When Justin Verlander suffered an injury requiring Tommy John surgery in 2020, he already had Hall of Fame credentials. Since the surgery, Verlander has been as good as ever, taking home his third Cy Young Award in 2022 with a 1.75 ERA. Given his recent success, he could conceivably become baseball's next (maybe last) 300 game winner. Whether he gets there or not, he'll certainly make the Hall of Fame.
Of all the great pitchers to take the mound in the past 15 years, Clayton Kershaw has been the best of the best. Since his debut in 2008, Kershaw has won three Cy Young Awards, five ERA titles, one MVP award, and 210 ballgames against only 92 losses, making him the second pitcher in history to win 200 games with fewer than 100 losses. He is on the cusp of 3,000 career strikeouts, and his career ERA stands at 2.48. He'll be a first ballot inductee.
Likely Candidates (>50%)
Joey Votto had a tough season in 2023 (.202 average, 14 homers in 65 games), but he has a career slash line of .294 / .409 / .511 and 356 career home runs. The NL MVP in 2010, Votto dominated the on-base leaderboards throughout the decade, leading the league in OBP seven(!) times, including an absurd .474 mark in 2012. He should make it to Cooperstown.
Freddie Freeman had a career year for the Dodgers in 2023, batting .331 with 29 homers en route to a third place finish in the NL MVP Award voting. His counting stats are coming around, and he is perhaps the most consistent hitter in the game today. He should make it without much trouble.
After winning the NL MVP Award in 2022, Paul Goldschmidt had a disappointing 2023 season (.268 average, 25 home runs). At age 36 he may or may not be slowing down, but the seven time all-star has been one of the best players in the game since 2013, earning himself a reputation as America's first baseman. I think he'll make it.
Nolan Arenado has led the NL in home runs three times in his eleven seasons, but has perhaps made a bigger impact on defense than he has on offense. A ten time Gold Glove winner, he has built up a reputation as one of the greatest fielding third basemen of all time. My only doubt about his case is the fact that he played in Colorado for eight years, benefiting from the Coors Field boost, a boost that voters have historically punished (although Todd Helton's recent election to the Hall of Fame could mean that times are changing). Given his success as a Cardinal and his work with the glove, he should easily make it to Cooperstown.
Manny Machado is very similar to Arenado, but won't get the same kind of love with the voters. A standout third baseman himself, he has "only" two Gold Gloves to show for it, and hasn't been able to win one since joining the NL in 2018, where he's had to compete with Arenado. Machado is one of the most feared hitters in the game, as much for his power as for his temper, which has resulted in a thrown bat or two over the years. His attitude will cost him some votes when his time comes, but there should be little doubting his playing ability, which is of Hall of Fame quality.
2008 AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria was one of baseball's best players for the first decade of his career, and was still semi-productive last year at age 37, popping 11 home runs in 211 at bats. Longoria's slash line (.264 / .333 / .471) may seem underwhelming, but he has 342 career homers and 1,159 RBI's. He is 70 hits away from 2,000 and he scored his 1,000th run last season, two important milestones that should help his case. Longoria is also a renowned defender at the hot corner, winning three Gold Gloves and saving one reporter's life from an errant baseball (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKMllY6jHp0). One hopes that he'll be able to put two or three good seasons together and lock in his plaque. We'll see.
Which brings me to the next player... Jose Altuve. Ever since the news broke in 2019 that the Astros had been using illegal sign stealing devices for the past several years (including their 2017 World Championship season), the Astros have all been labeled as cheaters, and Altuve has perhaps been hammered hardest of all. Before the big reveal, Altuve was one of the most beloved players in the game. He had come from a humble background and beaten tremendous odds (including his diminutive stature) to make it to the Majors and become a big star. Since 2019, however, Altuve has been one of the most hated players. Probably the most booed player today, certain hoodlums have been known to shout "F* Altuve" on occasion. In 2020, Altuve had a miserable season, batting only .219 and making several costly throwing errors in the postseason. It seemed as if he couldn't get any lower than he was in 2020. However, things started to change for him. In 2021, Altuve hit 31 home runs. He was even better in 2022, hitting .300 with 28 homers and leading the Astros to the World Series Title (which most everyone considers legitimate). Altuve was as good as ever in 2023, slashing .311 / .393 / .522 in 410 plate appearances.
Altuve's Hall of Fame case depends heavily on whether he was guilty of stealing signs. Interestingly, I have not really found much evidence to suggest that he was (his terrible 2020 season can probably be attributed to the huge target on his little back). For that matter, I don't really have much against Michael Brantley, either. In fact, I recently came across a relatively convincing YouTube video that defends Altuve as innocent (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQTdEKA-nyM). If his career is indeed authentic, it could be Hall-worthy. Altuve has won three Batting Titles and led the AL in hits four times, taking home an MVP Award in 2017. He is a career .307 / .364 / .471 hitter, and reached several important milestones in 2023 (2,000 hits, 1,000 runs scored, 200 homers, 400 doubles). An eight time all-star, Altuve is still going strong at 33, and could very well finish up a Hall-worthy career. He'll certainly lose votes for the controversy surrounding his name, not to mention dreadful defense, but I'd still consider him a likely candidate for eventual induction.
Although I think Zack Greinke should definitely make the Hall of Fame, I don't want to call him a lock - you can never predict anything in Zack Greinke's future. His career has been strange, as his best seasons have been interspersed among average ones. What's more, his favorite toy, his bat, has been taken away from him with the introduction of the universal DH in 2022. Greinke is coming off a rough season (2-15, 5.06 ERA), but is only 21 strikeouts away from 3,000, which should seal his induction... if he decides to play this year. Whether he gets there or not, I think his credentials (225 wins, two ERA Titles, 2009 Cy Young) should be enough to get him to Cooperstown.
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole notched his 2,000th strikeout last season, and is five wins away from 150 in his career. While he is a bit on the low end of some major counting statistics, perhaps getting to 200 wins or 3,000 innings isn't as important as it used to be. However, an even bigger impediment to his case may be the numerous cheating accusations aimed toward him. I still think he'll probably make it, but those rumors could sure put a damper on things.
Craig Kimbrel made his ninth all-star team in 2023, a good season but hardly his best (3.26 ERA, 23 saves). Kimbrel will don his eighth Big League jersey this year, signing a one year deal with the Orioles in free agency. Sporting a 2.40 career ERA and 417 saves, I'd say he'll probably make it someday. For a while, he was considered the best closer in the game.
Kenley Jansen had an up and down season in 2023 (3.63 ERA, 29 saves), but still managed to make his fourth all-star team. The owner of a 2.52 ERA and 420 saves, Jansen was long considered the best reliever in baseball this side of Kimbrel, and continues to add to his impressive save total. I'd expect him to make it eventually.
Unlikely Candidates (<50%)
Elvis Andrus's type is not a popular one to modern BBWAA voters. In past eras, players like Bid McPhee, Dave Bancroft, Travis Jackson, and others were able to gain induction with similar resumes, but in today's power-hungry game, those guys aren't appreciated anymore. Andrus had a productive season in 2023, hitting .251 and providing value on defense and on the bases, ultimately ousting former batting champ Tim Anderson out of the White Sox's starting shortstop job. He collected his 2,000th hit and 100th home run last season, but his rate statistics are nothing to throw a party about (.269 / .325 / .370 career slash line). Given his strong defense, I'd say there's a slight chance that he'll sneak in, but I'm not counting on it.
Andrew McCutchen returned to the Pirates last year, and rewarded them with a pretty good season (.256 / .378 / .397). He collected his 2,000th hit in 2023 and is one home run away from 300, and has proven that he can still swing the bat, so I don't want to say he has no shot, but the odds are pretty long indeed.
At this point last year, I would have said that Christian Yelich's Hall of Fame chances were close to zero. After a resurgent 2023 season, I will not completely discredit Yelich's odds, especially if he reaches 2,000 hits, but I'm still not counting on it.
Aroldis Chapman had a bit of a resurgence in 2023 (3.09 ERA and 103 strikeouts, plus a decent postseason). His career totals are modest (698 1/3 innings, 321 saves), but he's a seven time all-star and the owner of a mind boggling 40.3% K rate. Since he's still capable of throwing 104 miles per hour, I think a few more good seasons could earn him a plaque.
David Robertson has virtually no shot at Cooperstown, but it's not all his fault; despite being Mariano's replacement closer with the Yankees, he's closed less than half of the games he's pitched, and has only 175 career saves. If he'd been a closer his whole career, things could be looking a lot differently for him.
Wait And See
Salvador Perez had an off year by his standards, but was still good enough to make his eighth all-star team. It's going to be interesting to see how Perez's case is handled: a solid defensive catcher with prodigious power, his allergy to walks gives him only a .300 career OBP. He's got a lot of hardware in his trophy room (including five Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and the 2015 World Series MVP Award), but his counting totals are still relatively low. If he can add more counting totals without tanking his on base percentage, I'd say there's a good chance he'll be inducted. But that is a big if.
J.T. Realmuto is a rare commodity among catchers, providing a high batting average and good baserunning(!) with strong power and solid defense. More consistent than spectacular, Realmuto is 32 years old and has relatively low counting statistics, but given his recent performance, he'll definitely have a shot to round out a Hall-worthy career.
Giancarlo Stanton had a miserable 2023 season (.191 / .275 / .420). Age, injuries, and a brutal defensive decline have been hard on him, and he is now essentially a one trick pony - a slugger. Stanton's 24 homers in 2023 bring him to 402 for his career, and he should make it to 500. However, since the steroid era, 500 homers hasn't guaranteed induction like it used to, even for clean players like Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield. If Stanton limps to 500 homers with more seasons like 2023, then he'll likely be left out.
Aaron Judge is perhaps the most feared hitter in the game today, but a late start, a pandemic, and injuries have kept him to relatively low counting statistics, including only 846 hits. The owner of 257 homers at age 31, Judge's contract runs through 2031, so he's got a good chance to eclipse 500 homers. Unlike Stanton, Judge is the whole package both offensively and defensively, and I could see him getting inducted with fewer than 2,000 hits, even if he doesn't get to 500 homers.
Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager had the best season of his career in 2023, slashing .327 / .390 / .623 with 33 homers and 96 RBI's in 119 games en route to a second place finish in the AL MVP Award voting. He was also the MVP of the World Series, the second time he's won the award. Heading into his age-30 season, injuries have been his biggest problem, but if he can stay on the field and play out the rest of his contract, I'd expect him to make it to Cooperstown.
Francisco Lindor had a strong season in 2023 (31 homers, 98 RBI's). While he hasn't quite regained the form that made him the face of MLB during his Indians days, he's still a highly productive player. Going into his age-30 season, he's got a good shot to round out a Hall-worthy career if he can continue to play at his current level for a few more years.
Trea Turner turned a rough season into a successful one, finishing 2023 with 26 homers and a trip to the playoffs. He's only played 1,004 games through his age-30 season and is not a good defensive shortstop, but he continues to be a force at bat and on the basepaths, so I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually wound up in the Hall of Fame based on peak-level offense.
One of the most consistent and best disciplined hitters in baseball since 2016, Jose Ramirez made his sixth top-ten MVP finish in 2023, hitting .282 with 24 home runs and 80 RBI's. Going into his age-31 season, Ramirez's counting stats are a little low (1,327 hits), and his defense will likely slide in his thirties, but the guy can still do everything - hit for average, hit for power, drive in runs, steal bases. We'll see how long he can sustain his current level of production, but I'd say five or six years at his present pace will probably be necessary if he wants a plaque.
Bryce Harper made the headlines again in 2023 when he returned to the field only 159 days after Tommy John Surgery (crushing the previous record of 182), proceeded to play first base in Rhys Hoskins's absence, and ended up hitting .293 with 21 homers. At 31, Harper owns elite rate stats (.281 / .391 / .521 slash line), not to mention 306 homers, so he's got a good shot to make it to the Hall someday.
Still an effective pitcher heading into his age-35 season, Chris Sale recently joined the Atlanta Braves, which should help him add to his 120 career wins. Despite a lack of innings due to injuries and two seasons as a reliever, Sale's strikeout feats may be enough to sway many voters. A Cy Young Award would certainly help.
Jacob deGrom faces a lot of the same challenges that Sale does, perhaps even more extremely: possibly the top pitcher of his generation (only Kershaw could argue), deGrom has not made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, leaving him with only 84 career wins heading into his age 36 season. However, with two Cy Young Awards and a lessening emphasis on starting pitchers' wins (plus five more years left on his contract), I'd say that he's still got a legitimate shot at eventual induction.
Officially the highest paid athlete in history, Shohei Ohtani inked a ten year, $700,000,000 contract with the Dodgers this offseason, giving himself an enormous expectation to meet. A two way superstar who's been baseball's best player in each of the past three seasons, Ohtani will not be able to pitch in 2024 due to an elbow injury. Injuries such as Ohtani's are always concerning - having already undergone Tommy John Surgery in 2019, it's not impossible that his pitching career is over, and that he may be limited to DH duties for the next decade. If that happens, with 681 hits through his age-28 season, then it's possible that he'll miss out on the Hall of Fame. However, I think it's much more likely that he plays very well with the Dodgers (probably with a return to the mound), and that he'll make it to Cooperstown. From 2021-23, he played at a level unmatched by anyone in the history of the game.
Fallen Out Of Contention
Anthony Rizzo needed a few more good seasons to get back on track for Cooperstown, and seemed to be having one in 2023, slashing .304 / .376 / .505 with 11 home runs by May 28, when he suffered a concussion in a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. The injury went undiagnosed until August, and Rizzo played through it in the meantime, hitting .172 / .271 / .225 with all of one homer. That may have been the final nail in the coffin for Rizzo's Hall of Fame case. He'll need at least 2,000 hits to even receive consideration, and I don't know if that'll happen.
Despite his 90 RBI's, Jose Abreu had a nightmarish 2023 season (.237 / .296 / .383 slash line and a stint on the IL). While he may have somewhat redeemed himself with a strong postseason, I think he is starting to decline. Heading into his age 37 season, his counting statistics seem a little short for comfort. However, a case can be made for his induction if you consider his outstanding career in Cuba, which delayed his MLB debut until he was 27.
DJ LeMahieu has another tough season in 2023 (.243 / .327 / .390). At 35, LeMahieu's counting statistics are not high enough yet, and given his performance over the past three seasons, I doubt he'll return to form.
Anthony Rendon really frustrates me. I used to be an Angels fan before they drove their franchise into the ground, and was excited to see Rendon come over in 2020. He was coming off a brilliant 2019 season in which he'd led the Majors with 126 RBI's, ended up finishing tenth in the MVP voting in 2020, and looked like a potential Hall of Famer. However, the injury bug has been on him like ugly on an ape since 2021. Over the past three seasons, he's appeared in a total of 148 games, slashing .235 / .338 / .364 and experiencing a sharp decline in the field. What's even more frustrating is, in two of those seasons, I drafted him in my fantasy league, only to drop him like a hot rock. At any rate, his career seems to be falling apart, and his Hall of Fame chances are falling to nearly zero.
After a strong 2022 season, I was hoping that Johnny Cueto would have a chance to be good and possibly pull together a Hall-worthy resume. After a dreadful 2023 season, I'd say that hope has been extinguished.
Madison Bumgarner made four starts last season, lost three of them, and was released on April 26. What a brutal decline for the Giants postseason legend who as recently as 2019 was considered a top pitcher. With 134 wins and a 3.47 ERA, there is little hope for MadBum's case.
Mark Melancon missed all of 2023 with an injury. Barring a miracle, 38 year old Melancon can kiss Cooperstown goodbye.
Retirees
Miguel Cabrera has retired as one of the greatest hitters the game has ever known. A four time batting champion and baseball's last Triple Crown winner in 2012, Cabrera slashed .301 / .382 / .518 in his career with 511 home runs, 1,881 RBI's, and 3,174 hits. I await his first ballot induction in 2029.
Adam Wainwright had a tough final season in 2023, but collected his all important 200th win in his last start, going seven shutout innings against the playoff-bound Brewers. If not for three seasons lost to injury, one to COVID-19, and two as a reliever, Wainwright could have had 250 wins. In addition to his victories, Uncle Charlie has a .618 career win percentage, 2,202 strikeouts, and four top three finishes in the Cy Young Award voting (although he never took home the hardware). Wainwright also has a successful postseason resume, going 4-5 with a 2.83 ERA, four saves, and 123 strikeouts in 16 different series, taking home two World Series rings. A dynamic all around player, Wainwright won two Gold Gloves and one Silver Slugger to line his trophy room. I think he deserves a plaque.
As far as I know, the Nationals are still trying to negotiate with Stephen Strasburg, but I think he's planning to retire. If Strasburg has indeed thrown his last pitch, he will be an intriguing Hall of Fame candidate. A much anticipated prospect, Strasburg was a star as soon as he came up, striking out 14 on his MLB debut. From 2010 through 2019, Strasburg was simply dominant. During that decade, he went 112-59 with a 3.17 ERA and a 29.1% strikeout rate, leading the NL in wins, starts, innings, strikeouts, and homers / 9 IP each once. What's more, he dominated in the postseason, going 6-2 in nine appearances (eight starts) with a 1.46 ERA and 71 strikeouts, taking home World Series MVP honors in 2019 as the Nats won the first World Series in franchise history. Strasburg was on top of the world when injuries struck him down. From 2020 through 2022, he made just eight starts as the Nationals fell into oblivion. He did not pitch at all in 2023 and may be retiring. Is ten seasons of dominance, plus postseason heroics, enough to ensure Strasburg a plaque? He has only 113 wins, but that number is offset by his astronomical .646 winning percentage. I could see Strasburg sneaking into Cooperstown under the guise of Dizzy Dean - a dominant pitcher for a while who was at his peak when an unfortunate injury took its toll. He made only 247 career starts, but during those 247 starts, he was one of the best pitchers in the game. We'll see if that will be good enough to push him over the top.
