Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Lucky Hall Of Famer Number 54 - Lou Brock (And a Word On the Traditional Hall Of Fame Benchmarks)

Throughout the history of the Hall of Fame, certain milestones have been considered enough for near-automatic induction. Other than the ineligible Pete Rose, until Bonds and Clemens made their debut on the BBWAA ballot in 2013, no player in history who had at least 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, 300 wins, or 3,000 strikeouts had ever been excluded from Cooperstown (although not all were first ballot selections). While Bonds, Clemens, and other steroid users have been excluded so far, the trend has continued even with clean players, such as Fred McGriff (who was inducted by the Veteran's Committee), Curt Schilling (who has been canceled by the liberal media), and now Gary Sheffield. Though the milestones are not a voting rule by any means, a longstanding baseball tradition is crumbling by ignoring them. Other than Rose and the steroid users, I think each player who has reached one of those milestones is deserving of his plaque in Cooperstown, as they are truly impressive achievements. Well, maybe not all of them deserve their plaques. Enter Lou Brock. 
    The heir to Stan Musial as the St. Louis Cardinals' leftfielder, Brock was one of the flashiest players of his era. An eight time leader in stolen bases, Brock set both the single season and career records for steals, both eventually falling to Rickey Henderson. Brock was also a World Series hero, batting .391 with 14 steals in three Series, taking home two rings. He collected his 3,000th hit in his final season, 1979. 
    While I hesitate to call Brock a lucky Hall of Famer because of his hit total, his Hall of Fame case has some serious drawbacks. Brock's signature talent was his stolen base prowess, which led to 938 thefts over his 19 year career. What voters failed to realize was that Brock was gunned down 307 times, second on the all-time list behind Rickey Henderson, who stole over 400 more bases. While Rickey had an 81% success rate, Brock only succeeded 75% of the time, meaning that, despite the hype, he actually provided little value on stolen base attempts. While Brock was an eight time stolen base champion, he also led the league in caught stealing seven times. 
    The other phases of Brock's game do not help his case for Cooperstown, either. At bat, he slashed .293 / .343 / .410, good for an OPS+ of 109, an extremely low number for a Hall of Fame leftfielder. He didn't walk much for a leadoff man, and although he wasn't a power hitter, he still managed to strike out 1,730 times (second on the all-time list at the time of his retirement), further convincing me that he was a weak hitter. On the defensive side, Brock had the range to get to the ball, but had a bad reputation as a fielder because he simply dropped a lot of fly balls. Over his career, Brock had a woeful .959 fielding percentage, leading the league in errors seven times. And outfielders' errors are typically more costly than infielders' errors, often counting for two bases instead of one. 
    Overall, it seems as though Brock wasn't really that good at anything. He wasn't an amazing hitter, he was a bad fielder, and his baserunning was less valuable than advertised. On the traditional five tool test for position players, Brock scores a lowly two (hitting for average, yes; speed / baserunning, yes; hitting for power, no; fielding, no; throwing, no). Yet he sailed into Cooperstown on his first ballot. 
    Brock was a decent player, fortunate enough to play for 19 years and compile some impressive counting statistics, such as 3,023 hits and 1,610 runs scored. He is also somewhat historically significant for his briefly held stolen base records. However, he is not an ideal Hall of Famer. Of all the players in Cooperstown who had either 3,000 hits, 500 homers, 300 wins, or 3,000 strikeouts, each is deserving of his plaque... except Brock. 

My opinion: The traditional Hall of Fame benchmarks are very strong indications that a player is Hall-worthy, but there can be exceptions, such as Brock. 

Friday, January 26, 2024

Lucky Hall Of Famer Number 53 - Orlando Cepeda

When he was first coming up, Orlando Cepeda was one of the most exciting young players in baseball. A highly touted prospect, he was the NL's unanimous Rookie of the Year in 1958. He first became an all-star in 1959, and led the league in homers and RBI's in 1961. One of the most popular players in the game, he took home NL MVP honors in 1967 and was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1999 by the Veterans Committee. 
    Although his basic batting numbers look impressive (.297 / .350 / .499, 379 homers, 1,365 RBI's), Cepeda was not an ideal Hall of Famer and, in fact, a bit overrated. While most voters prefer simplistic batting stats, they rarely take into account things like defense and baserunning. Cepeda was a poor fielder, whether at first base or in the outfield, and was a lackluster baserunner. He did a lot of other little things wrong, too - for example, he didn't walk much for a power hitter, grounded into a lot of double plays, and batted .171 in three World Series. An "old 30," Cepeda had only one big year after he turned 30, when he hit .305 with 34 homers in 1970. 
    Cepeda was the unanimous choice for the MVP Award in 1967, more for popularity than merit. Certainly Roberto Clemente, who hit 32 points higher and was miles ahead defensively, would have been a better pick. Cepeda wound up with 280 vote points and the award, while Clemente finished third with 129 vote points. 
    Although he was very popular and his basic batting numbers seem convincing, Cepeda was aged off the BBWAA ballot in 1994 and relied on the Veterans Committee for induction. The reason for this is, a few years after his retirement from baseball, he served a ten month jail sentence for drug possession. This put a huge damper on his reputation, and he struggled with the BBWAA until the VC came to his rescue. 
    Personally, I would not vote for someone who was imprisoned for breaking the law. While I admit that not everyone in Cooperstown was the embodiment of Christian virtue (nobody's perfect), there is a hard line between being an unpleasant person and actually being a convicted felon. While it is impossible for us to judge someone's mind or soul (nor should we try), it is possible to judge someone's actions, and Cepeda was found guilty of a crime and served jail time. That, and his already marginal career as a player, is enough for me to exclude Cepeda from my ballot. 
    Just a small tangent: Isn't it absurd that Joe Jackson, who was found not guilty on trial for helping throw the 1919 World Series, was banned from baseball for life, while Cepeda, who served jail time, is in the Hall of Fame? 


My opinion: Orlando Cepeda is not a Hall of Famer. 

Tuesday, January 23, 2024

2024 Hall Of Fame Ballot Results

The BBWAA's annual Hall of Fame voting results are in. 

Adrian Beltre - 95.1% of the vote 

Todd Helton - 79.7% 

Joe Mauer - 76.1% 

Billy Wagner - 73.8% 

Gary Sheffield - 63.9% 

Andruw Jones - 61.6% 

Carlos Beltran - 57.1% 

Alex Rodriguez - 34.8% 

Manny Ramirez - 32.5% 

Chase Utley - 28.8% 

Omar Vizquel - 17.7% 

Bobby Abreu and Jimmy Rollins - 14.8% 

Andy Pettitte - 13.5% 

Mark Buehrle - 8.3% 

Francisco Rodriguez - 7.8% 

Torii Hunter - 7.3% 

David Wright - 6.2% 

Dropoffs From Future Ballots 

Jose Bautista and Victor Martinez - 1.6% 

Bartolo Colon - 1.3% 

Matt Holliday - 1.0% 

Adrian Gonzalez - 0.8% 

Brandon Phillips - 0.3% 

Jose Reyes and James Shields - both squat 


Everybody saw Beltre's first ballot induction coming. The owner of 3,166 hits, 477 home runs, and five Gold Gloves, he is undoubtedly one of the greatest third basemen of all time. 

I knew that Helton was going to get in this year. As I have mentioned before, I have some reservations about his case, but I don't want to spoil his big day by going through them again. 

I am glad that Mauer got in. I was a little nervous that the voters would punish him for his five year stint as a first baseman, but as it stands he is one of the greatest catchers of all time and a first ballot Hall of Famer. 

Due to the shortened 10 year window that players have on the ballot, Gary Sheffield has fallen off with 63.9% of the vote. If the 15 year standard were still in place, he'd have a good chance to get in, but instead he is on the outside looking in. One can only hope that a Contemporary Era committee will vote him in. 

After his 5.7% jump from last year (as opposed to a 17.1% leap the year before), I am biting my nails about Wagner, who sits on 73.8% heading into his final ballot. Unquestionably one of the finest closers in history, his record includes 422 saves, a 2.31 ERA, and 1,196 strikeouts, better than most enshrined closers. I hope he makes it next year. 

Obviously, I am a little annoyed with Beltran's 10.6% increase, but I saw it coming. While I would never vote him into Cooperstown after his involvement in the Astros' cheating scandal, it seems like most of the voters disagree with me. 

Since the release of this ballot, I've had a change of mind about several players on it. After years of clamoring for Omar Vizquel's induction, I think it might be time to throw in the towel - he keeps slipping in the voting, and on reviewing his numbers I guess I could go either way on him. Likewise, I don't see a need to vote for Jimmy Rollins or David Wright, who I previously expressed a little bit of interest in. On the other hand, Andruw Jones is starting to grow on me - despite a brutal decline after age 30, I'm beginning to like his peak. He hit 434 homers and could conceivably challenge Willie Mays as the best defensive centerfielder in history. Sounds like a Hall of Famer to me. Utley's 28.8% debut is a good sign, and I hope this underrated star can keep climbing and eventually get his plaque. Near the bottom of the ballot languishes Bobby Abreu, a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate who just doesn't pass the "feel test" for the majority of voters. While he rarely led his league in major offensive categories, he was always among the league leaders in offense, and he accrued much of his value through less flashy means, such as doubles and walks. I hope the voters realize his true talent and start checking his name. I am also a little discouraged by K-Rod's 3% drop from last year - another elite closer with even more saves than Wagner (437), he needs to start moving in the other direction. Finally, Torii Hunter continues to linger near the bottom of the ballot. A very talented player, I would love to see him in Cooperstown, but I'd be fine if he didn't make it. 7.3% just doesn't seem like an accurate representation of his career. 

Congratulations to the Hall's three new inductees, who will be officially inducted along with Jim Leyland on July 21. 

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

WHY I THINK ROY OSWALT SHOULD BE IN COOPERSTOWN

WHY I THINK ROY OSWALT SHOULD BE IN COOPERSTOWN 

By- Damien 



Roy Oswalt was one of the most underrated pitchers of his era. While he didn’t throw 100 miles per hour and only twice struck out 200 batters in a season, Oswalt was consistently getting hitters out and winning ballgames, keeping opposing teams off balance with strong command of five pitches. Oswalt was one of the most steady pitchers in the game for the first decade of his career, a decade marked by heavy offense. 

Roy Edward Oswalt was born on August 29, 1977, in Weir, Mississippi. One of three children, young Roy grew up an Atlanta Braves fan. In high school, he played both baseball and football for Weir High. Oswalt was perhaps a bigger football star as a youngster, helping the football team to a state title in his senior year. On the mound, his 5’10”, 150 pound frame turned away many scouts. “I always heard that I was too small,” lamented Oswalt. He was finally spotted by scout James Farrar of the Houston Astros, who tentatively drafted him in the 23rd round of the 1996 draft. It took him four minor league seasons (and a stint in the 2000 Olympics) to make it to the Big Leagues, but once he made it, he was there to stay. 

Oswalt went 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA as a rookie in 2001, leading the NL in winning percentage and finishing second in the Rookie of the Year Award voting. In 2002, Oswalt went 19-9, establishing himself as one of the premier pitchers in the league. He helped the Astros to back to back postseasons in 2004 and 2005, going 2-0 in the 2005 NLCS to win MVP honors and lead the club to its first pennant in franchise history. He continued his winning ways even when the Astros didn’t, and finished his first decade in the Majors with 150 victories, more than anyone else in baseball. 

In 2010, the Astros fell to fourth place in the NL Central, and when the trade deadline came around, Oswalt was shipped to the contending Phillies. The Phillies already sported two of the best pitchers in the game in Cole Hamels and Hall of Famer Roy Halladay, and when Oswalt joined the club, the terrific trio was nicknamed “H₂O”. Oswalt pitched brilliantly down the stretch, going 7-1 with a 1.74 ERA to help the Phillies win the Division Title. The Phils made it all the way to the NLCS, where they fell to the San Francisco Giants in six games, but the defeat cannot be attributed to Oswalt, who had a 1.84 ERA in three appearances and won Game 2. 

In 2011, former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee joined the H₂O group, leading many experts to consider the Philadelphia rotation one of the finest in history. Despite numerous back problems, Oswalt still turned in a quality season, posting a 3.69 ERA in 23 starts as the Phillies made the postseason again, this time falling to the Cardinals in the NLDS. 

On October 30, 2011, Oswalt was granted free agency. Due to age and back problems, he didn’t sign until May, working out a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers. He made it to the big club on June 22, pitching 6 ⅔ innings and allowing one earned run. Despite the strong performance, the 2012 season was a poor one for Oswalt, who stumbled to a 5.80 ERA in 17 appearances (nine starts). Things were no better for Oswalt in 2013, who posted an 8.63 ERA in nine games for the Rockies. Oswalt signed a one day contract with Houston to officially retire as an Astro on April 4, 2014. 

Due to a forgettable end to a relatively short career, Oswalt was one and done in his only BBWAA ballot, gaining 0.9% of the vote in 2019. At first glance, he doesn’t look like much of a candidate - 163 wins, a 3.36 ERA, 1,852 strikeouts, and zero Cy Youngs immediately turned off many voters. However, this is not a fair evaluation of Oswalt’s career, and a case can be made that he should be in the Hall of Fame. For the first decade of his career, he was the winningest pitcher in the game. Although he never won a Cy Young Award, he finished among the NL’s top six in six different seasons and, in my humble opinion, should have won in 2006 when he won the ERA title. In total, he had a won-loss record of 163-102, good for a .615 winning percentage. Despite his strong winning percentage, an argument can be made that Oswalt was a hard luck pitcher: in 85 career winless quality starts, Oswalt went 0-36 with a 2.66 ERA. In nearly one-fourth of his career starts, Oswalt pitched just well enough to lose. Although bad luck and back problems leave him well short of 200 wins, that might not be as much of a problem as it used to be. As starting pitchers are going fewer innings and earning fewer wins, they’ll start getting into Cooperstown with fewer victories, too. In this context, Oswalt’s superior winning percentage would be more important than his win total, and it will continue to look better as time goes on. 

In addition to Oswalt’s regular season feats, he was also quite successful in the postseason. Although he never won a World Series, he was an integral part of the Astros’ playoff runs in the mid-2000’s and the Phillies’ run in 2010. The MVP of the 2005 NLCS, Oswalt led the Astros to their first pennant in franchise history. Overall, Oswalt had a postseason record of 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA, proving that he was clutch when the stakes were highest. 

Roy Oswalt was a tough competitor. No matter the day or the opponent, you could always count on him to throw a good game. He would be a good addition to the Hall of Fame. 


LIFETIME STATISTICS 

Games Pitched career: 365 season high: 36 in 2004 

Starts career: 341 season high: 35 in 2004 and 2005 led NL: 35 in 2004 and 2005 

Wins career: 163 season high: 20 in 2004 and 2005 led NL: 20 in 2004 

Losses career: 102 season high: 13 in 2010 

Winning Percentage career: .615 season high: .824 in 2001 led NL: .824 in 2001 

Complete Games career: 20 season high: 4 in 2005 

Shutouts career: 8 season high: 2 in 2004, 2008, and 2010 

Earned Run Average career: 3.36 season low: 2.76 in 2010 led NL: 2.98 in 2006 

WHIP career: 1.211 season low: 1.025 in 2010 led NL: 1.025 in 2010 

Innings Pitched career: 2,245 ⅓ season high: 241 ⅔ in 2005 

Strikeouts career: 1,852 season high: 208 in 2002 

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings career: 7.4 season high: 8.2 in 2010 

Walks career: 520 (34 intentional) season high: 62 in 2002 and 2004 

Strikeouts Per Walk career: 3.56 season high: 4.37 in 2006 led NL: 4.37 in 2006 

Fielding Percentage career: .982 season high: 1.000 in 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009 led NL P: 1.000 in 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2009 

Double Plays career: 31 season high: 5 in 2011 

Putouts career: 169 season high: 24 in 2008 led NL P: 24 in 2008 

Assists career: 310 season high: 38 in 2002 


DID YOU KNOW? 

-finished 22nd in the NL MVP Award voting in 2001 and 23rd in 2002, 2004, and 2005 

-was a three time all-star (2005-07) 

-led the Majors with 20 sacrifice bunts in 2006

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Amazing Baseball Quote #13

"No one in this clubhouse is scared of those guys [the Dodgers]. Their leadoff hitter is vegan... ours is modern day Babe Ruth." - Noah Syndergaard (allegedly) 

This quote may be fake. Before the 2022 season, then-Angel Syndergaard supposedly made this joke about the Dodgers' Mookie Betts (who had recently become a vegan), but later denied it on social media. Wherever this quote came from, it is pretty awesome. 

Thursday, January 4, 2024

New Blog

I have recently started a new blog, The All-Time World Series: 

https://thealltimeworldseries.blogspot.com/ 

This blog will recap a fictional World Series pitting the best players in each league's history against one another. The Series is going great right now: all three games played so far have been competitive, and two have gone into extra innings. If you're interested in that sort of thing, be sure to check it out. 

Tuesday, January 2, 2024

Lucky Hall Of Famer Number 52 - Bruce Sutter

As I wrote in May of 2022 (https://thecooperstownadvocate.blogspot.com/2022/05/chart-for-relief-pitchers.html), I am not sure if any closers belong in Cooperstown. A closer's role is extremely limited, making it hard to ascertain his true value to his club. What's worse, saves, more or less the defining statistic of closers these days, are pretty arbitrary and don't mean much on their own, making them even trickier to evaluate. Up until now, I've been pretty lax about criticizing the closers already in the Hall of Fame, but I think it's time to pick on the bottom of the barrel among enshrined closers - Bruce Sutter. 
    Bruce Sutter made his MLB debut with the Cubs in 1976, pitching to a 2.70 ERA in 52 appearances. The next year, he lowered it to 1.34 (with 31 saves) en route to seventh place finish in the MVP Award voting. Sutter continued to shine for the next several years, with the pinnacle of his career coming with the Cardinals in 1982, when he finished off the World Series against the Milwaukee Brewers (an AL team back then). Sutter had a hiccup in 1983 (4.23 ERA), but was back to form in 1984, posting a 1.54 ERA and a setting a new MLB record with 45 saves. This season earned him a six year, $4.8 million contract with the Braves, plus another $4.8 million into a deferred payment account at 13% interest, making him the highest paid player in the game. However, Sutter's career started to crumble from there, as he stumbled to a 4.48 ERA in his first season in Atlanta. Injuries cost him most of 1986 and all of 1987, and when he returned in 1988, he was ineffective. Another injury triggered his release on November 15, 1989. 
    When evaluating Sutter's career, I don't see a lot to love. He pitched twelve seasons in the Majors, and was below average in four of them. I'll shrug off the 300 saves because they don't matter; at his core, Sutter was a good pitcher in a very limited sample size - only 1,042 innings in his career. The lack of innings really stunts his value. If the Hall wants to induct a closer with so few innings, I'd expect him to be better than Sutter, who had a 2.83 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 20.3% K rate. 

My opinion: Bruce Sutter is not a Hall of Famer. 

Requiescat In Pace, Whitey Herzog