Even though he got a late start in baseball (he was 27 years old when he won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2014), Jose Abreu's having himself one heck of a career. At 35 he had another stellar season in 2022, batting .304. However, his counting statistics (e.g., 1,445 hits after nine seasons) are pretty low. If he can put together a few more all-star seasons, then I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a plaque someday.
Manny Machado had a career year in 2022, batting .298 with 32 homers and reaching the century mark in both runs scored and RBI's. Despite "only" two Gold Gloves (he's had to contend with Nolan Arenado for much of his career), Machado's defense is truly elite. He's putting together a Hall of Fame career, no doubt about it. However, he is not a popular player, and tends to throw temper tantrums on the field every once in a while. A lot of sportswriters don't like him, and I have a sneaking feeling that they may leave him outside. We'll see.
35 year old Michael Brantley missed much of 2022 with injuries (.288 mark in 243 at bats). I'd say he's got a small chance to make it, as he is a very talented hitter and could well reach 2,000 hits. NOTE: I'd previously left Brantley completely out of the conversation since his Astros were caught sign stealing. However, there may be reasons to believe that Brantley was never in on the scheme; for one, he joined the club in midseason 2019 (the last season they went unnoticed) and his hitting didn't suffer in 2020 like many of his teammates' did.
J.T. Realmuto has become the best catcher in the Majors by a rather large margin. He's been utterly consistent both at bat and behind the plate since he debuted in 2014, but often outshined by guys like Buster Posey and Yadier Molina. Now that they're gone (and on their way to Cooperstown), J.T. can bask in stardom a bit more now. He had a signature season in 2022 (.276 / 22 / 84, career high 21 stolen bases), and could have been the MVP. I think he'll probably make it.
Jose Ramirez has been one of the best hitters in baseball since 2016. His counting stats need some work, but given his combination of contact hitting, on base skills, and power, I think he can put together a Hall of Fame career.
Giancarlo Stanton is kind of a one tool player - he's only a power hitter. He's not a high average hitter (lifetime .264 mark), he doesn't run, and he's lousy in the field. However, Stanton has 378 homers in only 5,237 at bats (7.22 HR%). He turned 33 back on November 8, and his contract doesn't expire until 2029. If he can average 25 homers per season until the end of his contract, then he'll have over 500, which would be enough for induction. Here's betting that he gets it.
Salvador Perez had another productive season in 2022 (.254 / 23 / 76 in 445 at bats). Despite a general lack of counting statistics and on base skills, he's only 32 and has time to add to his career totals. As it is today, he's got a lot of hardware in his trophy room (5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, 7x all-star, 2015 World Series ring) and the single season home run record for a catcher (48 in 2021). I think he'll make it.
Despite struggling with injuries this season, Bryce Harper was a huge part of the Phillies' team this year, especially during the postseason. He's barely 30 years old and is one of the best hitters in baseball. I'd predict to see him in Cooperstown one day.
I don't want to say that Andrew McCutchen has no shot for the Hall of Fame, but he's losing time to put together a worthy resume. At 36 his production was down in 2022 (.237 batting average and 17 homers), and I don't know if he has any all-star seasons left. If he doesn't, then I'd suspect that he'll be on the outside looking in.
37 year old third baseman Evan Longoria hit 14 homers in 266 at bats this season, proving that his bat still has some pop. He's been struggling with injuries lately, but he's one of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history and a convincing power hitter (331 homers and 1,131 RBI's). I'd vote for him if he retired today.
NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt is establishing himself as one of the best hitters so far in the 21st century. Assuming he makes it to 2,000 hits (he has 1,750), he should make it with little trouble.
After a couple off years in 2020-2021, some people thought that Francisco Lindor might be losing it. In case anyone ever doubted his ability, he drove in 107 runs for the Mets this year. He still has some work to do, but I'd expect him to come through and put up a Hall worthy resume.
At 34, Elvis Andrus had somewhat of a renaissance season in 2022 (.249 / 17 / 58, 18 stolen bases). He scored his 1,000th run this season and is three hits away from 2,000. As one of my all time favorite players, I hope he can turn it around, and considering his fine defense, I think there's at least some hope of him turning in a Hall of Fame career. We'll see.
A couple seasons ago I would have said that first baseman Anthony Rizzo was still in his prime and had time for his counting statistics to come around, being one of the best hitters in baseball. He still has his old power stroke (32 home runs in 465 at bats in 2022), but his batting average slipped to .224. At 33 I'd say he won't get his average back up, and at 33 a .265 career hitter with 283 homers and 1,476 hits doesn't have much hope. However, if he converts into a closer, then maybe he'll have a chance.
Freddie Freeman, one of the top hitters in the game, is starting to shape into a Hall of Famer. His counting stats are coming around without hurting his rate statistics. He's almost sure to make it.
Mookie Betts has the most complicated case of anyone on this list. If you take his numbers at face value, then most people would probably say that he's not there yet, but he's got a good chance to get there in future. HOWEVER, his Red Sox were caught stealing signs after winning the World Series in 2018, making their title illegitimate. I personally wouldn't vote for him, but I suspect that the BBWAA probably will.
When I first started coverage of active players, I would have said of Anthony Rendon what I say of so many other players on this list - that he still has work to do, but is probably on his way to a Hall of Fame career. Now that he's wasted another season to injuries (.229 / 5 / 24 in 166 at bats), I don't know what to think of his case. Rendon is 32 years old, and has a ways to go with all of his counting statistics, but his current contract with the Angels is good for another five seasons. If he can start hitting like he did in 2019, then he'll have a chance to right the ship. If he doesn't, then he'll have no chance at Cooperstown.
DJ LeMahieu seems to have lost his touch. It's not that he's not a good player - he batted .261 in 2022 with a dozen homers, a .357 OBP, and 74 runs scored while manning three infield positions. At 34 he may be past his peak, and while he is still effective, I don't think he'll be able to compile the necessary counting statistics to make a Hall of Fame career. His lifetime batting average also fell below .300, and stands at .297 going into 2023. He'll have a tough time making it, I think.
Third baseman Nolan Arenado had another MVP-caliber season in 2022 (.293 / 30 / 103, Platinum Glove award). He's just shy of 300 homers and 1,000 RBI's, and he's got 10 (!) Gold Gloves. He'll make it.
Joey Votto had a tough season in 2022, hitting .205 in 322 at bats before being shut down with an injury. You never know what to expect from Votto - he always seems to follow up a great season with a not so great season, leading many to think his career is over... and then turns in an all-star performance the next year! Even if this marks the end of his productivity, I think he's done enough for induction by now. He's got 2,093 hits, including 342 homers, and a career OPS of .926. I'd vote for him if he retired today.
Mike Trout had another signature season in 2022, slashing .283/.369/.630 with 40 homers in only 438 at bats. At 31 he still has many great years ahead of him, but I'd vote for Trout even if he chose to retire today. He's already earned it.
Miguel Cabrera plans to play out his contract and play in 2023, but in the context of the Hall of Fame it's really unnecessary. He hit his 500th homer late last year and collected his 3,000th hit early this year. He's a four time batting champ and baseball's last Triple Crown winner (2012). Any questions?
PITCHERS
Johnny Cueto was one of the surprises of the 2022 season, as he posted a 3.35 ERA in 25 games (24 starts). While this was a good renaissance season, Cueto still has a ways to go if he wants to be considered, and at 36 he may or may not have much left in the tank. With 144 wins, a 3.44 ERA, and 1,812 strikeouts, it's been a very good career, but his Hall of Fame chances are unlikely.
Gerrit Cole is establishing himself as one of the greatest strikeout pitchers of all time. In 267 career starts (1,650 innings), he already has 1,930 K's, and has shown that he can strike out 300 in a season. However, his other counting statistics aren't so convincing (e.g., only 130 wins at age 32). On top of that, he's seen his share of cheating accusations. I'd say that if he fleshes out his career with more all-star seasons, maybe reaching 200 wins and 2,500 innings, then he'll have a good shot unless more negative evidence surfaces. As of now, he's a very fragile candidate - power pitchers like Cole have been known to blow their arms, and older ones tend to allow a lot of homers. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
Chris Sale is a remarkable pitcher - he just seems to suffer injury after injury. He was limited to two starts (5 2/3 innings) this year, and made only nine in 2021. If he can't get back on track and string together a few more career years, then he'll be left out. However, I think that if he stays healthy, then he can right the ship and perhaps make the Hall of Fame. It all depends on his health.
Jacob deGrom made eleven starts in 2022, going 5-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings. He just can't seem to stay healthy. If he can pitch effectively until he's 40 (seven more seasons) and add to his anemic win total (82; due in large part to bad Mets teams over the years), then he'll have a shot. As of now, it looks like this awesome pitcher may miss out on the Hall of Fame due to injuries. It's a sad career path, but that's just the way it is.
Similar to Sale and deGrom stands Stephen Strasburg, who made just one start in 2022 between two devastating injuries. After the Nationals won the 2019 World Series, Strasburg was in a pretty good place. He had a career year on the mound and took home World Series MVP honors. At 31 he could have worked around his low win total. Now, three years later, I'm not so sure. I don't want to say he has no chance, but I'm not sure if he'll even pitch another full season in the Majors. He'll have a tough time making it to Cooperstown.
Poor MadBum! He was well on his way to Cooperstown going into his Diamondbacks contract. He was remarkable in the regular season, but an all time postseason legend. Not only that, but he was a marvelous hitter, with 19 career home runs (he was among the National League leaders in grand slams in 2014). Since joining the D-backs, he's been just miserable, with an ERA north of 4.50. He's shown some promise of late, as he had a stretch of ten or so very good starts in the middle of last year, and carried a solid season into this year's all-star game. However, I think his best days are behind him, and his Hall of Fame chances are very small indeed.
Adam Wainwright had another fine season in 2022 (11 wins, 3.71 ERA), and is five wins away from 200 for his career. If you take into account two prime seasons he lost to injuries, as well as three more as a reliever, then he might have won 250. I think he's done enough.
David Price had a solid season out of the Dodgers' pen this season (2.45 ERA in 40 1/3 innings). At 37 he may or may not come back in 2023, and unless he finds new life as a starter (or becomes a great closer), then he won't make the Hall of Fame.
38 year old Zack Greinke returned to the Royals this year, and turned in a pretty good 2022 season (3.68 ERA in 26 starts). He never seems to stop. He has 223 wins and an outside shot at 3,000 strikeouts. He'll make it.
Although he was limited to 23 starts in 2022, Max Scherzer still put together a very productive season (11 wins, 2.29 ERA, 173 strikeouts). He collected his 3,000th strikeout late last season and won his 200th game this year. At 38 he seems to be showing no signs of slowing down, and he could wind up as one of the top ten pitchers of all time if he keeps it up. As for the Hall of Fame, he staked his claim a long time ago.
39 year old Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery this year and had the best season of his career: 18 wins and a microscopic 1.75 ERA en route to his third Cy Young Award. With a new right elbow, he could conceivably pitch until he's 45, maybe even 50. He'll also have a shot at 300 wins. He'll make the Hall of Fame if he ever stops pitching.
Clayton Kershaw went 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA in 22 starts for the Dodgers this year, making it 197-87, 2.48 for his career. He's three wins away from becoming the second pitcher in MLB history to win 200 games with fewer than 100 losses (Bob Caruthers), and will likely reach 3,000 strikeouts. He's another lock.
Aroldis Chapman had another tough year in 2022 (4.46 ERA in 43 appearances). He used to be a great closer, and he's accomplished a few impressive feats, such as the fastest recorded pitch in MLB history (>105 mph). He's got a 2.48 career ERA, 315 saves, and 1,045 strikeouts in 640 innings. He should make it if he has a few more good years in him, but he may be finished.
Kenley Jansen found a new team in the offseason, but he's been quite effective so far with the Braves (five wins and 41 saves). He's just short of 400 saves and has over 1,100 strikeouts to complement a 2.46 ERA. He should have no trouble making the Hall of Fame.
Craig Kimbrel may be losing his old magic. At 34 he posted a 3.75 ERA and 22 saves in 63 appearances in 2022. He's still got 391 saves and a 2.31 ERA, but you never know with relievers. He should make it, but I can't say anything for sure.
Mark Melancon, after a fine season in 2021, had a miserable 2022 (3-10, 4.66 ERA). At 37 he has only 262 career saves and a 2.94 ERA, which are a ways off from the Hall of Fame standards for closers. If he has a couple good years in a row, and reaches 300 saves, then I suppose he could have a chance for induction, but I'm not counting on it.
TOO EARLY TO TELL
AL MVP Aaron Judge hit 62 homers this season, setting the single season American League record. At 30, he's got only 748 hits in seven seasons, but 220 of them are home runs, and he's had two seasons with over 50. He has some work to do, but he could certainly put up Hall of Fame numbers by the end of his career.
Two way star Shohei Ohtani arguably played better than Judge in 2022 (15-9, 2.33 ERA, 219 strikeouts as a pitcher; .273/.356/.519 with 34 homers as a hitter). His 2021 and 2022 feats are unrivaled by any player in MLB history. If he can keep it up for a couple years, then he'll easily make it to the Hall of Fame.
A WORD ON MIDDLE RELIEVERS
Ever since the Hall of Fame started inducting relievers, closers have made it in while middle relievers haven't. Why is that? I know exactly why: S-A-V-E-S. Saves, although they are of little real value in themselves, are a flashy statistic (it sounds great to save a game, doesn't it?). A couple of middle relievers active today could be in the Hall of Fame discussion if only they were closers. They are -
David Robertson. Robertson has had some opportunities to close out some games in his career, with 157 saves (including 20 this season). At 37 he is still a valuable reliever, and for his career he has 57 wins in 731 appearances. If only he were a full time closer, he would have a chance to make the Hall of Fame.
Darren O'Day. 40 year old O'Day was limited to 28 appearances in 2022 due to injuries, but his career is excellent. In 644 appearances, he has a record of 42-21 (.667), a 2.59 ERA, 1.034 WHIP, and better than a strikeout per inning. He's done well in his few opportunities as a closer, with 21 saves. I know he won't make the Hall of Fame, but he's one of the all time greatest middle relievers, a role just as difficult and important as that of closer.
RETIREES
A number of future Hall of Famers have retired in 2022, all as St. Louis Cardinals.
Albert Pujols is one of the greatest hitters of all time. A three time MVP, Pujols had a great final season in 2022, batting .270 with 24 homers in 307 at bats. His chase for 700 homers was one of the most exciting milestones in a long time. I await his first ballot entry.
Yadier Molina, still probably the best defensive catcher in baseball, retired with some pretty impressive career accomplishments: nine Gold Gloves, ten all-star selections, two World Series rings, and 2,168 hits. He also collected his 1,000th career RBI this season. He should be another easy pick, maybe not a first ballot selection but a definite lock.
Jon Lester didn't pitch at all in 2022, but also retired with some impressive numbers, such as 200 wins and almost 2,500 strikeouts. He should make the Hall of Fame.
