Some Notes On Statistical Analysis

The use of statistics is the most useful and convenient way to rate players and teams, simply put. However, not all statistics are perfect, and some shouldn't even exist. For example, when I was ten years old, if I saw a pitcher take the mound in relief and win the game, I would have thought that he'd earned a save (I thought that wins were exclusive to starters). This makes a lot of sense because he really did save the game. If I saw a reliever earn a save, I'd think that he'd gotten a hold (an unofficial statistic for middle relievers), because he merely held onto a lead. The lead wasn't of his doing. I think that it would make sense to disallow every save in MLB history, change the definition of a save, and only credit saves to pitchers who get the ball in relief and don't blow it, as long as he closes out a game that is really in danger of being lost, if it is a one run game or if it is a two run game and there are two runners in scoring position. Then there will be many, many fewer saves, but to earn a save would not only be meaningful, but praiseworthy (to a reasonable extent, of course). The best part is that we would never have to fight over whether 300 or 500 or 652 saves makes someone a Hall of Famer. We could look at a reliever and say, "If this guy has 100 or so saves, a reasonable ERA, and rarely (<25%) blew a save, then he's a Hall of Famer." Do you see how simple this becomes? 

I also believe that catchers should get credit for blocking what would be scored a wild pitch and preventing a baserunner from advancing. The only problem is that the scorekeeper would have to score the pitch a wild pitch or a passed ball anyway. Ugh, thinking! Even though this statistic would come at so great a price as to think, everyone would have a better understanding of how good each catcher was defensively in an important spot. 

Pickoffs are important. I think that pickoffs should become official statistics for pitchers, catchers, and baserunners, and that they should help to adjust some other statistics. If a batter can make it to first base but out of his own clumsiness can't stay there, then he's as good off as if he'd gotten out at bat. You know, the way we statisticians score the best hitters is by measuring the amount of runs he produces in the fewest number of outs. If a runner is picked off, then that should count against him as an out in determining how good an offensive player he was. Pickoffs are worth counting, as they are even better for the defending team than a strikeout (because they take away a baserunner and an out). 

If a pitcher makes an error (especially a throwing error) and the runner scores, I think that the run should be earned, since the run scored only through the pitcher's own fault. 

That a hit by pitch raises a batter's on base percentage and a catcher's interference does not is the silliest thing that I've ever heard. They both result in the batter being deprived of a chance to hit, and both allow the batter to automatically advance to first. Pitchers used to intentionally hit batters and catchers used to purposely mess up batters' swings, and both moves instigated rule changes. I think that a catcher's interference should raise a batter's OBP, exactly like a hit by pitch. They also should not be called errors on the catcher, but classified on their own. 

Finally, if a sacrifice fly lowers a batter's on base percentage, then it should lower his batting average, too. I am not saying that it necessarily has to lower the batter's average (because sometimes a manager will ask the batter simply to hit a long fly), but if it doesn't, then it shouldn't affect his OBP, either. The batter didn't make a hit or get on base. However, because he did something good for his team, perhaps on purpose, in hitting a sacrifice fly, the play may not need to lower any of his rate statistics. I will not say whether a sacrifice fly should or shouldn't lower a player's average or OBP, but the fact that he did hit one should affect both statistics, not just on base percentage. 

NOTE: This is a post that will likely be edited and added to after publication, so check it again in a month or two. I also apologize for any confusion that this lining issue has caused. It is a common problem for me for some reason, so please bear with me.