Thursday, November 23, 2023

2024 Hall Of Fame Ballot

    The following players are on the BBWAA ballot for 2024. After I tell you who they are, I will tell you who I would vote for if given the chance. Let's start with the new names, and then go in alphabetical order among the holdovers from last year's ballot. They are -

Jose Bautista 

Adrian Beltre 

Bartolo Colon 

Adrian Gonzalez 

Matt Holliday 

Victor Martinez 

Joe Mauer 

Brandon Phillips 

Jose Reyes 

James Shields 

Chase Utley 

David Wright 

Gary Sheffield (10th year on the ballot) 

Billy Wagner (9th) 

Manny Ramirez (8th) 

Andruw Jones (7th) 

Omar Vizquel (7th) 

Todd Helton (6th) 

Andy Pettitte (6th) 

Bobby Abreu (5th) 

Mark Buehrle (4th) 

Torii Hunter (4th) 

Alex Rodriguez (3rd) 

Jimmy Rollins (3rd) 

Carlos Beltran (2nd) 

Francisco Rodriguez (2nd) 

     Each voter can vote for up to ten players for the Hall of Fame. If I were a voter, I'd cast my ballots for Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner, Omar Vizquel, Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, Francisco Rodriguez, Adrian Beltre, and Joe Mauer. 

Gary Sheffield's Hall of Fame case is complicated. On the one hand, he was one of the most feared hitters of his era, batting .292 / .393 / .514 with 509 homers and 1,676 RBI's from 1988 through 2009. On the other hand, his defense was atrocious, whether he was playing shortstop, third base, or the outfield. However, the most difficult part of Sheff's case is the fact that he was named in the Mitchell Report as a possible steroid user. While I would be an adamant anti-steroid voter, I could condone Sheff for a few different reasons: (1), he admitted to using them briefly during the 2001-2002 offseason under the impression that they were something else, perfectly legal; (2), he was an advocate of mandatory steroid testing, claiming that those who don't have anything to hide wouldn't mind testing; and (3), Sheff's career path doesn't suggest him getting a significant boost from whatever he used in 2002. A top prospect coming up, he hit .330 with 33 home runs as early as 1992, and had already reached his career high in homers with 43 in 2000 (in fact, Sheffield's 2002 season was his worst in years). Overall, I think Gary Sheffield was a relatively clean player who had an authentic, Hall-worthy career. 

Billy Wagner was a dominant closer in his day. The owner of 422 Big League saves, he had a 2.31 lifetime ERA and a 33.2% strikeout rate. In his final season, 2010, Wagner had arguably the best year of his career, posting a 1.43 ERA in 69 1/3 innings with 104 strikeouts while converting 38 saves. 

Vizquel has another complicated case. When he debuted on the BBWAA ballot in 2018, he received 37.0% of the vote and made steady progress, peaking at 52.6% on his third ballot, making him a good bet for eventual induction. However, his support has since plummeted due to accusations of bad behavior off the field. Personally I want to ignore those things for two reasons: (1), as far as I know they are only accusations, and I am not fit to judge whether he was innocent or not; and (2), the character clause is the least criterion in the Hall of Fame voting guidelines, and many guys in Cooperstown today were perhaps not the nicest. On the field, Vizquel was a great player. He played more games, turned more double plays, and had a higher fielding percentage than any other shortstop in MLB history. Vizquel won eleven Gold Gloves and six fielding titles across his career, making him arguably the greatest defensive shortstop in history. At bat, Vizquel was no great shakes (.272 / .336 / .352 slash line), but he handled the bat well, was a very good baserunner, and batted as high as .333 in 1999. Because he played 24 Big League seasons, he compiled some impressive counting statistics, including 2,877 hits, 456 doubles, and 1,445 runs scored. In my mind this adds up to a Hall of Fame career. 

Bobby Abreu was one of the most underrated players of his day. A modern day Bob Johnson, Abreu quietly collected 2,470 hits, 400 stolen bases, and eight seasons with over 100 RBI's while rarely leading his league in offensive categories. His career slash line was .291 / .395 / .470, and he captured a Gold Glove in 2005. 

Torii Hunter was another underrated player. His offense was good (.277 / .331 / .461 with 353 homers and 1,391 RBI's), but his biggest claim to fame was his defense. Hunter won nine Gold Glove awards as a centerfielder, providing sure hands (.990 fielding percentage), a good arm (131 outfield assists), and tremendous range (2.53 RF/9). 

Francisco Rodriguez was one of the finest closers of all time. His 62 saves in 2008 are the all-time single season record, and his 437 across his career rank fourth on the all-time list behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, and Lee Smith. K-Rod sported a 2.86 career ERA in 948 appearances and a strikeout rate of 28.5%. 

Adrian Beltre should be an easy Hall of Famer. A member of the 3,000 hit club, Beltre was perhaps the greatest defensive third baseman of his generation. 

Joe Mauer's case is a tale of two careers. From 2004 through 2013, he was an elite catcher. Across that decade, Mauer batted .323 with a .405 OBP and three AL Batting Titles. He was the AL MVP in 2009, batting .365 (the highest average ever by a catcher) with 28 home runs and 96 RBI's. Mauer was also an asset behind the plate, throwing out 33.2% of potential base thieves and winning three Gold Gloves. He looked like a surefire Hall of Famer until he suffered a concussion in 2013. After the injury, Mauer never caught another MLB game, and spent five seasons as the Twins' primary first baseman. He hit over .300 twice during that span, but overall those final five years were mostly a slog. Considering his overall batting numbers, and the fact that he caught over 60% of his defensive innings, I would give Joe Mauer my vote. 

That leaves me with two empty boxes on my make believe ballot. There are a few more players who I might consider including. Last year I voted for Jimmy Rollins, who wouldn't make a bad Hall of Famer but is not someone who the Hall needs. The same can be said about David Wright, who was on his way to Cooperstown until an injury devastated his career, and Chase Utley (although Utley may get an extra push for his very own rule change). Andruw Jones is a matter of personal taste - one of baseball's most exciting players in his youth, Jones was a consistent masher and a defensive stalwart from 1998 through 2006. After his 30th birthday however, he regressed mightily, batting .214 in six seasons and losing his everyday centerfield role. Overall, he batted .254 with 434 home runs and a whole mess of strikeouts. I could go either way on him. Finally, we must consider Todd Helton's case. He garnered 72.2% of the vote on last year's ballot, and is as good as in. However, I'd be extremely skeptical about his election. At a glance, Helton's batting stats seem convincing - .316 / .414 / .539 slash line, 369 homers, and 1,406 RBI's to go along with 1,401 runs scored. But his home-road splits tell a different story: he slashed .345 / .441 / .607 with 227 home runs at home, compared with .287 / .386 / .469 with 142 homers on the road. Helton seems to be a classic example of the Coors Field boost. A Colorado Rockie for life, Helton produced some monster numbers that may have been too good to be true. 

3 comments:

  1. I'd vote for Bobby Abreu, Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Joe Mauer, and Billy Wagner.

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  2. Only 10?! That leaves room for only Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, Omar Visquel, Francisco Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltran, Joe Mauer, Adrian Beltre, and Matt Holiday on my ballot. And I don't even have room for David Wright or Bobby Abreu, both of whom I would quite enjoy to have on my list.

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