The 15 Best Bets Among Active Starting Pitchers To Someday Make It To Cooperstown
In a very pitcher-friendly era, I would like to point out the best of the times. I hope that all will agree with my list.
Number 15: Corey Kluber (98-58, 3.16 ERA, 4.99 K/BB)
Kluber is going to have a hard time making it to the Hall of Fame. He has earned only 98 wins at 34 ½ and was selected to only three all-star teams. Kluber does have great rate statistics, such as 9.8 K/9 and 7.8 H/9. He does have two Cy Young awards and an ERA Title, but with a poor 2019 season and one inning in 2020, I think it’s safe to say that Kluber will not be a Hall of Famer.
Number 14: Gerrit Cole (101-55, 3.19 ERA, 4.31 K/BB)
One of the best pitchers today, Gerrit Cole is a strikeout machine and a consistent winner. He won the 2019 AL ERA Title and led the MLB with 326 strikeouts that year. His momentum is for him, as he had a strong 2020 season, but Father Time is not. He has only 101 wins at age 30, and the lost 2020 season probably cost him at least 15 more wins. His 3.19 ERA is not as low as expected, either, although he has allowed an average of 7.7 hits per nine innings and has struck out 10.1 per nine. We will have to wait and see for his bid at Cooperstown.
Number 13: Chris Sale (109-73, 3.03 ERA, 5.37 K/BB)
Here is another starting pitcher with a lack of counting statistics past age 30 that really hurt his Hall of Fame case. Sale is 31 ½ and has only 109 lifetime wins. He does have two league strikeout crowns, 2,007 whiffs in his career, seven all-star selections, and the highest strikeout to walk ratio in baseball history, but he is going down quickly and will need to have a little luck if he wants to make the Hall of Fame.
Number 12: Jacob deGrom (70-51, 2.61 ERA, 4.79 K/BB)
Another one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball today, deGrom has rate statistics that rank among the top handful of pitchers in history: 2.61 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 7.2 H/9. He has two Cy Young Awards, a Rookie of the Year Award, and an ERA Title at his disposal. The problem is, deGrom is 32 ½ years old, and only has 70 career wins in 183 starts. Losing this season hurts, especially for a pitcher who needs counting statistics to guarantee a plaque. If he can pitch productively well into his 40’s, he will probably find himself in Cooperstown. However, the fewest wins in history for a starting pitcher to make the Hall of Fame is 150, accomplished by Dizzy Dean, and he pitched in the heaviest hitting period that the game has ever seen.
Number 11: Stephen Strasburg (112-59, 3.19 ERA, 4.49 K/BB)
Stephen Strasburg is still a great pitcher who last had a Hall of Fame worthy season in 2019. He is a fine strikeout pitcher with an amazing winning percentage, a Silver Slugger award, and the 2019 World Series MVP Award. Strasburg is going to have to work around a 3.19 ERA and 112 wins at 32 ½, which is a very tall order for any pitcher seeking Cooperstown. His reputation and solid win percentage may be enough to secure him a plaque with a couple more quality seasons.
Number 10: Madison Bumgarner (120-96, 3.20 ERA, 4.14 K/BB)
“Madbum” is a very famous big-game pitcher whose postseason efforts (8-3, 2.11 ERA) are among the best in history. In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, he pitched five shutout innings to preserve a 3-2 lead and earn the greatest save of all time. His regular season numbers are tricky, however, as he is 31 ½ and has only 120 lifetime wins. He has good rate statistics, three World Series rings with the Giants, and is one of the greatest hitting pitchers of all time, so he may have a shot at Cooperstown once he retires, especially if he produces a few more great seasons.
Number 9: Adam Wainwright (167-98, 3.38 ERA, 3.10 K/BB)
Adam Wainwright has been pitching since 2005, pitching well since 2006, and pitching at a Hall of Fame level since 2008. He started out as a reliever, but was converted to a starter in 2007. He has a long and storied career, with a 2006 World Series ring with the Cardinals, two Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger award, and three all-star selections. He was struggling with his ERAs from 2016 through 2019, but had another great season in 2020. For the first decade of his career, “Waino” was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is currently 39, but if he can pitch as well as he did this season for a few more full seasons, he will probably find himself in Cooperstown. If he can’t, however, his fewer than 170 wins and 3.38 ERA are not going to cut it.
Number 8: David Price (150-80, 3.31 ERA, 3.76 K/BB)
David Price is going downhill and does not have the counting statistics that are typically looked upon as Hall of Fame worthy. He has one Cy Young Award and two second place finishes, plus two ERA Titles, strong rate statistics, and a fine season in 2018 at the age of 33, but he is 35 now and is losing opportunities to construct a very good Hall of Fame case. His 2018 season was his first really good season since 2015, when he captured his second ERA crown. His awards and achievements make him a legitimate candidate with a few more quality seasons, but so far, his overall numbers fall short as of now.
Number 7: Cole Hamels (163-122, 3.43 ERA, 3.34 K/BB)
Cole Hamels will be best remembered for his postseason efforts with the Phillies. He won a ring in 2008, and won both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. He is a four time all-star with an outside shot at 3,000 strikeouts (he currently has 2,560, in itself an impressive total), but his win total and career ERA are not Hall of Fame worthy, and he appears to be going down at the age of 37.
Number 6: Felix Hernandez (169-136, 3.41 ERA, 3.14 K/BB)
King Felix has been a dominant pitcher on some terrible Mariners teams throughout his career. The six time all-star has a 2012 Cy Young Award, a second place finish in 2014, two ERA Titles, and a perfect game to his credit. Hernandez is not a quality pitcher anymore at 34 ½ and will need to get better if he wants to get the 476 strikeouts that he needs to automatically earn a plaque. If he can’t, he can kiss Cooperstown goodbye.
Number 5: Jon Lester (193-111, 3.60 ERA, 2.86 K/BB)
Jon Lester is 37 years old, and he is looking down the road to retirement. The five time all-star will almost assuredly reach 200 wins, and still has a decent shot to reach 3,000 strikeouts, and he went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA for the World Series winning Cubs of 2016, their first title since 1908, ending the longest championship drought in American sports history. He was the 2016 NLCS MVP and has two more rings with the Red Sox. Other than his monumental 2016 season, he really makes a small mark on baseball’s 150+ year history, and he would not be a Hall of Famer without it, but the 2016 Cubs were such a big deal that Lester will probably see himself in Cooperstown someday.
Number 4: Zack Greinke (208-126, 3.37 ERA, 3.98 K/BB)
Zack Greinke is 37 years old and still a top pitcher. He had an off season in 2020 (who didn’t), but had an amazing season in 2019. The six time all-star has over 200 wins and nearly 3,000 strikeouts, two ERA Titles (including a 1.66 mark in 2015), a 2009 Cy Young Award, and a second place finish in 2015. He also has two Silver Sluggers and six Gold Gloves to his credit. His career statistics and awards make Greinke look like a lock for Cooperstown. The Hall of Fame will be calling Greinke before too long after he retires.
Number 3: Max Scherzer (175-93, 3.21 ERA, 4.34 K/BB)
At 36 ½, Scherzer is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. His strikeout numbers are insane. He has also allowed only 7.5 hits per nine innings across his career. “Mad Max” is a consistent winner, a seven time all-star, and a three time Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer’s case is simple, strong, and obvious. He’s a future Hall of Famer.
Number 2: Justin Verlander (226-129, 3.33 ERA, 3.54 K/BB)
Verlander is about to turn 38 years old, but he is still the best pitcher in the American League. He is the only player in history other than Don Newcombe to win the Rookie of the Year Award, a Cy Young Award (he has two), and a league MVP Award. He is an eight time all-star with a Triple Crown win in 2011, over 3,000 lifetime strikeouts, and a career 7.6 hits per nine innings ratio. Needless to say, Verlander is Hall of Fame worthy.
Number 1: Clayton Kershaw (175-76, 2.43 ERA, 4.32 K/BB)
Clayton Kershaw is 32 ½, but he has the best rate statistics out of anyone on this list by far. He has better counting statistics than most on this list as well. Three Cy Young Awards, a MVP Award, five ERA Titles (the most in NL history), a Triple Crown, and eight all-star selections certainly state Kershaw’s Hall of Fame case loud and clear. He posted a 2.16 ERA this season and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Even from a die-hard Giants fan, Kershaw is the top pitcher in baseball today and will probably be a first ballot Hall of Famer.
I enjoyed reading this, and I don't disagree with any of your ratings too much.
ReplyDeleteHow many times do I have to tell this is not a pitcher's era? You measure a pitcher's or hitter's era by the amount of runs scored. Strikeouts are merely incidental- there being a lot of strikeouts does not not not not make it a pitcher's era. Sorry for being kind of ranty-just a trifle annoyed for the moment.
Have a good weekend!
I am glad that you liked it and agree with my picks. I explained before why this is a pitchers' era and I wrote this before you commented on the last one. You did do a pretty good impersonation of my Mom, however. Clearly we are not experiencing the 1960's again (at least not in baseball), but it is a bit tougher to hit a 100 mph pitcher than to hit an 80 mph hurler. The curves are more advanced as well. I hope that you will weigh my words and have a truly enjoyable weekend as well.
DeleteHrm. Wasn't meaning to sound like your mom. It is certainly tougher to hit a 100 MPH pitcher than one who threw 85-90, and the artificial substance fueled curves are hard too. But it is just as hard for the pitchers who have to face muscle-bound sluggers.
DeleteSo it's tougher for the hitters, but tougher for the pitcher's too. Maybe even tougher for the pitchers, with the bouncy baseballs, though reports are that the balls may be deadened a tad for 2021.
By the way, I'm almost frothing at the mouth at what MLB is doing to the minor leagues. Did you say their latest outrage? They've renamed the minor leagues into generic names. The Texas League is now Double-A Central, and I'm bashing my head against the wall (figuratively), at that. The Texas League went through fire and flame for 132 years, only to be felled by the powers that be. Crud. The major leagues want to completely subjugate the minor leagues, and this is one of the last steps.
Everything is homogenized now. TV and the highways have made this country the same everywhere, and this is the last straw.
I might do a little series of posts on my baseball card blog, talking about the dead minor leagues, and showing baseball cards of them.
Sighhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Gloooooooooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
So I'm interested in hearing what your thoughts are on that subject.
I hear what you're saying. I also totally agree with you about the uprooting of the traditional minor leagues. It seems pretty unfair to do that to both players and fans, but baseball is a business, and businesses make pretty selfish and bad moves sometimes. But this is just ridiculous. It makes the leagues much less interesting.
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