Thursday, February 23, 2023

The 30 Second Test

    One way to decide if a player is a viable Hall of Fame candidate is called the 30 second test. This test asks you to make a good case for a player in 30 seconds or less. This test has its strengths and weaknesses. Let's see if it's worth using. 
    The 30 second test is good because the Hall of Fame is supposed to be for the best of the best. Many Hall of Famers can pass this test rather easily, while the mistaken selections are usually fringe candidates who were good at a lot of things but not really great at anything. This test is good at separating the really impressive achievements from the moderately impressive ones. 
    However, the test does have its weaknesses. The test only points out the good in a player without taking account of his flaws. It also doesn't account for players whose value lay in their consistency or longevity. An example: 

Joe Carter 

-had ten seasons with over 100 RBI's 

-had 103 RBI's in the strike season and 1,445 in his career 

-had six 30 homer seasons and one with 29; 396 in his career 

-hit four homers in the World Series, including the one that walked off in 1993 

Time's up! 

That sounds pretty impressive. However, it doesn't account for his lack of on base skills (527 walks for a .306 OBP), his heavy strikeout totals, and his subpar defense. On the other hand, check out Pee Wee Reese: 

Pee Wee Reese 

-played 16 seasons in the MLB, not counting three years lost to military service 

-collected 2,170 hits in 2,166 games 

-led the NL once each in runs scored, stolen bases, walks, sacrifice hits, and intentional walks 

-hit .272 in seven World Series  

-befriended Jackie Robinson 

Time's up! 

While Reese perhaps doesn't do as well in the 30 second test, but he's a much better candidate. He was a good shortstop for a long time, hanging on until he was 39. He didn't always lead the league in offensive categories, but he was always among the leaders in runs scored, walks, and sacrifices. He had 2,170 hits and would have had a shot at 2,500 if not for the war. 

As it stands, Reese was a ten time all-star and received MVP votes in 13 seasons. Carter was a five time all-star and received MVP votes in eight seasons. Reese is in the Hall of Fame, and Carter is not. 

Like all such methods, the 30 second test is useful, but not infallible. It can be helpful a lot of the time, but should be taken with a grain of salt. 

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